There is no way out for Europe from CNBC 14 Nov
November 15, 2011
There is no solution to the current debt crisis plaguing the euro zone, and it’s an illusion to think that one lies on the horizon, an economist told CNBC Monday.
“There is no way out, I never thought there was, not for any of the countries that are in trouble. Once one of these countries goes into this sort of problem, there is no escape,” Roger Nightingale, economist at RDN Associates, said.
He dismissed the current, positive sentiment among investors regarding Italy as temporary and fleeting.
“In a few days time or a few weeks, things will go wrong again, yields will go up and the whole thing will skid into decline. It’s a foregone conclusion most of Europe is already in recession. It is relatively uncompetitive, and it is facing extra bond yields, extra interest rates which of course it can’t live with, and (it) will have slower rates of growth,” he added.
Nightingale was scathing about the possibility of the new interim heads of government – Mario Monti in Italy and Lucas Papademos in Greece - being able to deliver their countries out of the current crisis.
“These politicians can do nothing, there is no solution. I’m amazed that the media keeps on as if there’s an obvious solution and that these politicians know what it is,” he said.
He said the existing group of politicians and central bankers would be the last people in the universe to come up with the solution, if one indeed existed.
“It is somewhat ironic that the prime minister in Italy is Monti. He was a member of the European Commission. He was one of the architects of the system that caused all the problems. Why on earth would you put him in place? It would be a semi-miracle if the solution works” Nightingale said.
However, Alessandro Capuano, head of the Italian desk at IG Markets, disagreed with Nightingale, saying Italy had sound fundamentals underpinning its economy.
“If Italy can implement the austerity measures it needs to, we’ll still have a strong economy and in the medium term, we can balance the issue of the big debt and start to grow again,” Capuano said.